That Arthur Mutambara’s political life is hanging on a thread is indisputable. In fact his foray into politics has always been controversial and dramatic from the start. Plucked out of political obscurity to head the smaller faction of the MDC after the October 2005 split, Mutambara entered the fray as an enigmatic figure. Boasting an academic CV that was the envy of many in a country where academic achievement is highly regarded, Mutambara’s entry into politics was greeted with mixed feelings. While some lauded him as the political messiah that Zimbabwe had been waiting for, others were dismissive of him, arguing that academic achievement was not synonymous with good leadership.
Many Zimbabweans, weary of Robert Mugabe’s tenacious stranglehold on power, must have wondered how how a robotics professor who had been out of the country for decades could mount a serious political challenge to the foxy Mugabe. Die-hard Morgan Tsvangirai supporters derided Mutambara as a political novice who had no right to claim the coveted number one opposition leader position in Zimbabwean politics. They felt Tsvangirai had been in the trenches for too long, having destroyed ZANU (PF)’s electoral hegemony at the 2000 general elections. That Mutambara had heroically led student demonstrations that provided an early test to Mugabe’s political tenacity in the late 80s did not matter to Tsvangirai’s adherents. Some extremists in that camp even labeled him a ZANU (PF) hired gun being used as a proxy by Welshman Ncube.
How Mutambara became the number one choice for the smaller MDC faction is is not clear. It was widely speculated at the time that he had entered the fray as a reluctant leader but the trappings of power and political leadership had morphed him into an ambitious political gladiator. Party insiders say Welshman Ncube, who had led the revolt against Tsvangirai, and was the chief architect of what was to become known as the Mutambara faction, had not anticipated Mutambara’s about-turn. Ncube had hoped that Mutambara would be his political lap dog that would warm up the seat for his eventual takeover. His master plan was carefully designed to achieve two objectives. The first was to mask his real political ambition, to be the leader of the party and eventually the country. He realized that a Zimbabwean electorate that was skeptical of his political maneuvers would accuse of being an ambitious boardroom schemer who had attempted a palace coup to dislodge Tsvangirai from the leadership of the party. Moreover his role in the Ari Ben Menashe scandal that almost destroyed Tsvangirai’s political career had always been questionable. To assume leadership of the party at that juncture would have exposed his hunger for power. The second objective was to deflate the tribal outlook of the party by having Mutambara, a Shona as its head. His calculation was that a majority of the political heavyweights that had thrown their weight behind him were from Matebeleland and they would be viewed as an Ndebele outfit (exhibit A: Welshman Ncube himself, Gibson Sibanda, Fletcher Dulini Ncube, Paul Themba Nyathi, among others). Tribe is a critical variable in Zimbabwean politics.
Whether or not Mutambara could read Ncube’s mind is in the realm of conjecture. What became immediately clear was that Mutambara’s political branding would be problematic. Prone to delusions of grandeur and a ‘big ideas’ approach to politics, influenced by American politics (he spent several years in the US), Mutambara quickly realized that Tsvangirai would always overshadow him. Having honed his political skills from humble beginnings as a modestly educated mining artisan who had risen through the ranks of trade unionism to become a leader of an opposition party, Tsvangirai had become the symbol of resistance to Mugabe and ZANU (PF)’s hegemony. Mutambara correctly predicted that it would be a Herculean task to knock Tsvangirai off his perch. But he also could that ZANU (PF) had succeeded in portraying the MDC as a puppet of the West and as a result the MDC had always struggled with its branding as a genuinely African political party. Mutambara reasoned that he could occupy the space between Tsvangirai and Mugabe by advocating for a democratic political dispensation under the rubric of Pan-Africanism. This was obviously a mammoth task given Tsvangirai’s foothold on opposition politics and Mugabe’s impeccable liberation credentials and Pan African appeal. Therein lay the problem for Mutambara and that marked the beginning of his schizophrenic political branding.
The confusion was detectable from the start. In his maiden political speech, Mutambara confused many when he proclaimed himself the ‘anti-senate president of the pro-senate faction’. Ncube must have cringed in his chair wondering if he had hired the right guy for the job. On paper the October 2005 split had been caused by disagreement on whether or not to participate in senate elections, although in reality it was precipitated by personality clashes between Tsvangirai and Ncube. This was to mark the beginning of Mutambara’s quest for self-identity and a desperate desire to shake off the ‘Ncube lap dog’ tag.
The problem for Mutambara was that Zimbabwe is a highly polarized political society. It is difficult to criticize Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC and not be labeled as ZANU (PF). The reverse is true. The more Mutambara tried to project a Pan-Africanist persona by recognizing Mugabe as a liberation icon for instance, the more he was branded a ZANU (PF) politico. The more he tried to upstage Tsvangirai by questioning his intellect and judgment, the more he sounded like a pompous and condescending leader who was out of touch with reality. Zimbabweans generally highly regard the educated class but they frown upon self-importance and pomposity. Mutambara’s description of Tsvangirai as ‘an intellectual midget’ struck the wrong code with an electorate that is willing to turn a blind eye to Tsvangirai’s modest education in search of a democratic breakthrough.
While Mutambara was struggling with his ideological positioning, Ncube had other ideas. Having given Mutambara enough rope to hang himself by acting like Mugabe’s poodle, he calculated that Mutamabara’s impromptu outbursts must have caused some ructions among party faithfuls. He set out to destroy Mutambara by accusing him disregarding party policies and pushing a Mugabe agenda, charges that could easily stick. Of course Ncube had calculated that the seat was warm enough for him to take over. Always the boardroom master tactician that he is, he used his position as Secretary General to go around the country restructuring the provincial structures to ensure that his henchmen were in positions of authority. By the time the January 2011 elective congress was held, Mutambara could see that he was finished. Fearing an embarrassing defeat, he did not seek re-election and as a result Ncube was elected unopposed. Bruised and battered, Mutambara endorsed Ncube’s leadership, only to make an about turn a few days later, dismissing the congress as farce. This was followed by a hubbub of accusations and counter-accusations, court actions and counter-actions.
A few weeks ago the Bulawayo High Court made a ruling that confirmed Welshman Ncube as the legitimate leader of the faction. Mutambara has appealed the ruling but this seems like a desperate act to buy time in order to hang on to the job of Deputy Prime Minister. His political options are very limited. He can either join ZANU (PF) or form his own political party. Either way his political career seems doomed. Could this be a dream deferred or a dream defeated? Only time will tell.
Friday 30 December 2011
Friday 23 December 2011
Debunking Mugabe's poll plan
The just ended ZANU (PF) conference confirmed beyond doubt that Mugabe has succeeded in imposing himself as the party candidate for the next elections, whenever they will be held. The conference resolutions also show that Mugabe and a small clique of securocrats and civilian hardliners have prevailed in pushing through their selfish interests at the expense of national interest by cajoling the party into endorsing an election that no sane Zimbabwean wants. The Bulawayo conference was not a serious platform for the party to deliberate on policies and issues affecting it but a charade by Mugabe to legitimize his selfish election agenda.
Mugabe was anxious to get endorsed as the party’s candidate because he is aware of how unpopular he has become in the party. A running thread in all the Wikileaks cables involving ZANU (PF) politicians is that they all view Mugabe as a liability to the party and would rather see his back soon. The elective Mutare congress had already endorsed Mugabe as First Secretary of the party, effectively endorsing him as the party’s candidate at any election. But because of his paranoid delusions Mugabe thought it necessary to get another affirmation from the Bulawayo conference. This explains his insistence in the build up to the conference that it was almost like a congress.
That Mugabe’s candidature in the next election would be confirmed by the conference was in no doubt. By the time the 6000-odd delegates gathered in Bulawayo all the provinces had groveled on Mugabe’s feat, falling over each other to be the first to endorse him as their candidate. I argued in this column before that ZANU (PF) had once again squandered an opportunity for serious self-introspection and leadership renewal by endorsing a man who will be 88 years old next year as their candidate. What the party needs to urgently do is retire Mugabe and replace him by a younger and more energetic leader before the next election.
Frankly I do not see how Mugabe will manage a grueling electoral campaign given that his health is fast deteriorating due to old age. My suspicion is that the cabal of civilian hardliners and securocrats has assured Mugabe that they will deliver ‘victory’ to him the same way they did in 2008. What this means is that they hope to craft a highly militarized electoral campaign that is akin to the 2008 presidential election run-off.
Mugabe and his strategists hope that they can deploy war veterans and other auxiliary outfits including the youth militia into communities to not necessarily beat up opponents but to demonstrate that they are still there and they can unleash violence. Their calculation is that communities are still traumatised by the 2008 violence and that with minimal violence and intimidation Mugabe can claim a legitimate election victory. The rabid rumblings by war veterans’ leader Jabulani Sibanda about some ‘dogs’ that cannot protect their territory are a clarion call to his followers to start mobilizing within communities. The architecture of violence, which has just been lying dormant, will become more visible at the beginning of next year.
Ominously one of the resolutions from the conference specifically talks about targeting non-governmental organisations, which party secretary for legal affairs Emerson Mnangagwa accused of ‘meddling in the internal affairs of the country’. The strategy is to target civil society organisations doing human rights defense work. They have been a constant irritation for Mugabe and his henchmen because of their capacity to expose rights abuses both internally and externally. Mugabe views them as part of the regime change agenda and he detests them the same way he detests the MDC. In the run up to the 2008 presidential election run off many rights groups were forced to close shop as they had become targets of repression.
Only last week The Patriot newspaper, a shadowy ZANU (PF) aligned publication, ran a series of stories accusing rights NGOs of receiving US funding. What the paper did not bother to tell its readers is that that the same US government is also providing millions of dollars in humanitarian assistance to the people of Zimbabwe. Such articles are being carefully worded to portray rights NGOs as agents of Western interests. Ironically it is the same US government that top ZANU (PF) officials have been running to and holding secret meetings to discuss confidential internal party affairs.
Mugabe’s plan is to also target the private media as he views it as a critical bastion of opposition voices. In the past journalists have been arrested and detained with impunity for doing their job. Party heavyweight Mnangagwa told the Bulawayo conference that the party would craft a ‘response mechanism’ to the media including users of social platforms. ZANU (PF) strategists are fearful of the power of both traditional and new media in exposing electoral fraud and in mobilizing citizens in the event of a sham election. Only recently another ZANU (PF) functionary Herbert Murerwa was blaming Facebook for the revolutions in the Arab North.
Will Mugabe succeed with his election plan? I argue that he faces a Herculean task. The biggest hurdle to his game plan is SADC. Despite the hullabaloo about the GNU not working, Mugabe knows that he is entangled in it and he cannot afford to unilaterally pull out of it. That explains why in the past he has unsuccessfully attempted to cow the MDC into pulling out of it by arbitrarily arresting its senior officials, deliberately frustrating Tsvangirai and being rabidly recalcitrant. He hoped that the MDC would pull out of government and be to blame for the collapse of the GNU. The MDC has seen through Mugabe’s Machiavellian schemes and has stuck it out in the GNU.
SADC will not allow any of the parties to leave the GNU and will not agree to a hurried election. They see it as the only hope for a permanent solution to the crisis. Zuma will stick to his guns insisting that the parties adhere to the road map that outlines a raft of reforms that have to be undertaken before the next election. The days of Mugabe bullying SADC are over. The regional body is determined to finding a lasting solution to the Zimbabwean crisis. They see it as blight on the regional bloc’s quest for political stability and sustainable economic growth.
Moreover, events in the Arab North have spurred SADC to act decisively in resolving regional crises in order to pre-empt foreign intervention. SADC leaders are tired of being viewed as an ineffectual group that is beholden to Mugabe. The Livingstone Troika meeting and the Sandton summit attest to this. They have already warned Mugabe that he risks being swept away by an Arab-style revolution if he continues to suppress the will of Zimbabwean citizens.
Given these factors getting an election past SADC will be a hard sell for Mugabe. He would not countenance acting unilaterally. Never mind the bravado and fist waving, Mugabe knows that he cannot afford to thump his nose at SADC like that. Being the shrewd political tactician that he is, he understands the implications of alienating SADC. He has not forgotten the fact that it was SADC that threw him a lifeline by forcing the MDC to go into a power sharing government with him when he had clearly lost legitimacy. He also understands that South Africa will not brook a flawed electoral process. It has borne the brunt of the Zimbabwean crisis with the influx of millions of political and economic refugees into that country. The Zimbabwean crisis has become a domestic issue for Zuma.
Here is how I think Mugabe and his strategists will move. They will seize the election momentum from the conference and try to plunge the whole country into an election psyche. Their eyes will be on SADC and if the regional bloc bats an eyelid they will move with haste to call an election. For the reasons that I have mentioned above, my sense is that SADC will not bat an eyelid and this will force Mugabe to adhere to the terms of the road map to elections including the completion of the new constitution and the reform of state institutions. Realistically this means he can only have an election in 2013. Whether he has the political stamina and physical health to last until then is a debate for another day.
Mugabe was anxious to get endorsed as the party’s candidate because he is aware of how unpopular he has become in the party. A running thread in all the Wikileaks cables involving ZANU (PF) politicians is that they all view Mugabe as a liability to the party and would rather see his back soon. The elective Mutare congress had already endorsed Mugabe as First Secretary of the party, effectively endorsing him as the party’s candidate at any election. But because of his paranoid delusions Mugabe thought it necessary to get another affirmation from the Bulawayo conference. This explains his insistence in the build up to the conference that it was almost like a congress.
That Mugabe’s candidature in the next election would be confirmed by the conference was in no doubt. By the time the 6000-odd delegates gathered in Bulawayo all the provinces had groveled on Mugabe’s feat, falling over each other to be the first to endorse him as their candidate. I argued in this column before that ZANU (PF) had once again squandered an opportunity for serious self-introspection and leadership renewal by endorsing a man who will be 88 years old next year as their candidate. What the party needs to urgently do is retire Mugabe and replace him by a younger and more energetic leader before the next election.
Frankly I do not see how Mugabe will manage a grueling electoral campaign given that his health is fast deteriorating due to old age. My suspicion is that the cabal of civilian hardliners and securocrats has assured Mugabe that they will deliver ‘victory’ to him the same way they did in 2008. What this means is that they hope to craft a highly militarized electoral campaign that is akin to the 2008 presidential election run-off.
Mugabe and his strategists hope that they can deploy war veterans and other auxiliary outfits including the youth militia into communities to not necessarily beat up opponents but to demonstrate that they are still there and they can unleash violence. Their calculation is that communities are still traumatised by the 2008 violence and that with minimal violence and intimidation Mugabe can claim a legitimate election victory. The rabid rumblings by war veterans’ leader Jabulani Sibanda about some ‘dogs’ that cannot protect their territory are a clarion call to his followers to start mobilizing within communities. The architecture of violence, which has just been lying dormant, will become more visible at the beginning of next year.
Ominously one of the resolutions from the conference specifically talks about targeting non-governmental organisations, which party secretary for legal affairs Emerson Mnangagwa accused of ‘meddling in the internal affairs of the country’. The strategy is to target civil society organisations doing human rights defense work. They have been a constant irritation for Mugabe and his henchmen because of their capacity to expose rights abuses both internally and externally. Mugabe views them as part of the regime change agenda and he detests them the same way he detests the MDC. In the run up to the 2008 presidential election run off many rights groups were forced to close shop as they had become targets of repression.
Only last week The Patriot newspaper, a shadowy ZANU (PF) aligned publication, ran a series of stories accusing rights NGOs of receiving US funding. What the paper did not bother to tell its readers is that that the same US government is also providing millions of dollars in humanitarian assistance to the people of Zimbabwe. Such articles are being carefully worded to portray rights NGOs as agents of Western interests. Ironically it is the same US government that top ZANU (PF) officials have been running to and holding secret meetings to discuss confidential internal party affairs.
Mugabe’s plan is to also target the private media as he views it as a critical bastion of opposition voices. In the past journalists have been arrested and detained with impunity for doing their job. Party heavyweight Mnangagwa told the Bulawayo conference that the party would craft a ‘response mechanism’ to the media including users of social platforms. ZANU (PF) strategists are fearful of the power of both traditional and new media in exposing electoral fraud and in mobilizing citizens in the event of a sham election. Only recently another ZANU (PF) functionary Herbert Murerwa was blaming Facebook for the revolutions in the Arab North.
Will Mugabe succeed with his election plan? I argue that he faces a Herculean task. The biggest hurdle to his game plan is SADC. Despite the hullabaloo about the GNU not working, Mugabe knows that he is entangled in it and he cannot afford to unilaterally pull out of it. That explains why in the past he has unsuccessfully attempted to cow the MDC into pulling out of it by arbitrarily arresting its senior officials, deliberately frustrating Tsvangirai and being rabidly recalcitrant. He hoped that the MDC would pull out of government and be to blame for the collapse of the GNU. The MDC has seen through Mugabe’s Machiavellian schemes and has stuck it out in the GNU.
SADC will not allow any of the parties to leave the GNU and will not agree to a hurried election. They see it as the only hope for a permanent solution to the crisis. Zuma will stick to his guns insisting that the parties adhere to the road map that outlines a raft of reforms that have to be undertaken before the next election. The days of Mugabe bullying SADC are over. The regional body is determined to finding a lasting solution to the Zimbabwean crisis. They see it as blight on the regional bloc’s quest for political stability and sustainable economic growth.
Moreover, events in the Arab North have spurred SADC to act decisively in resolving regional crises in order to pre-empt foreign intervention. SADC leaders are tired of being viewed as an ineffectual group that is beholden to Mugabe. The Livingstone Troika meeting and the Sandton summit attest to this. They have already warned Mugabe that he risks being swept away by an Arab-style revolution if he continues to suppress the will of Zimbabwean citizens.
Given these factors getting an election past SADC will be a hard sell for Mugabe. He would not countenance acting unilaterally. Never mind the bravado and fist waving, Mugabe knows that he cannot afford to thump his nose at SADC like that. Being the shrewd political tactician that he is, he understands the implications of alienating SADC. He has not forgotten the fact that it was SADC that threw him a lifeline by forcing the MDC to go into a power sharing government with him when he had clearly lost legitimacy. He also understands that South Africa will not brook a flawed electoral process. It has borne the brunt of the Zimbabwean crisis with the influx of millions of political and economic refugees into that country. The Zimbabwean crisis has become a domestic issue for Zuma.
Here is how I think Mugabe and his strategists will move. They will seize the election momentum from the conference and try to plunge the whole country into an election psyche. Their eyes will be on SADC and if the regional bloc bats an eyelid they will move with haste to call an election. For the reasons that I have mentioned above, my sense is that SADC will not bat an eyelid and this will force Mugabe to adhere to the terms of the road map to elections including the completion of the new constitution and the reform of state institutions. Realistically this means he can only have an election in 2013. Whether he has the political stamina and physical health to last until then is a debate for another day.
Friday 16 December 2011
Mugabe and Tony Blair
There's more to Blair fleeing Mugabe
Friday, 17 December 2004 02:00
By Charles Mangongera
PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe and his bootlickers are over the moon because he shook Prince Charles’ hand at Pope John Paul II’s funeral.
According to the president, they also talked about beautiful girls in Ghana and in the conversation Mugabe is said to have told the prince that his first wife Sally was Ghanaian.
I am not sure if the conversation went further to touch on beautiful girls from Zimbabwe and Britain because the prince and the president married a Briton and a Zimbabwean respectively, in their second marriages.
Upon returning to Zimbabwe, the president also had a tale to tell about British Prime Minister Tony Blair fleeing from his official seat on realising that his delegation was to sit next to Mugabe at the funeral. The story has it that Blair, his wife Cherie, the leader of the Conservative party Michael Howard and the leader of the Liberal Democrats Charles Kennedy were to sit next to our dear leader and that this scared the hell out of them.
I enjoyed reading about the composition of the British delegation — Blair the prime minister, Howard the challenger and Kennedy, another challenger, all putting aside their political differences for a worthy cause. Zvinodadisa zvimbwasungata izvi (they are wonderful these imperialists)!
Imagine Mugabe joining hands with Morgan Tsvangirai and Wilson Khumbula, or even Jonathan Moyo for that matter, or any other aspirant to the presidential throne, for a worthy cause! Like attending the funeral of Archbishop Pius Ncube, or Archbishop Desmond Tutu, for instance. Not that I am praying for the Lord to take them now. I mean Pius Ncube and Desmond Tutu! But we are all mortals, are we not?
But what is the significance of the handshake between the prince and the president, one may ask? And the Blair fleeing incident?
Firstly, the government-controlled media went to town about it, with the official daily at the weekend giving a blow-by-blow account of what transpired. I think there is a real lack of seriousness among these people. I mean Mugabe and his bootlickers like television propagandist Reuben Barwe. The country is in deep trouble and all they waste their time and energy talking about is how Blair and his crew “fled” from Mugabe and how the president and the prince talked about beautiful girls in Ghana.
Something is not right here. Instead of using the rare opportunity to talk about the problems bedevilling the country, the president says he was talking about beautiful girls! There is a biting shortage of everything from cooking oil to fuel, and even common sense! Yet we waste our energies on trivia.
If I were the president I would have used the rare moment with the prince to implore him to help in the thawing of relations with Britain and the rest of the world so that Zimbabwe gets readmitted to the international community. This isolationist attitude is not bearing fruit Mr President. Neither is the “Look East” policy. The East is busy looking somewhere else, the West included. We are shunning the West at our own peril.
But why did the British delegation flee from the president anyway? I did not hear Barwe mentioning this. Could it be because paita kasimero kehudictator? (there is a dictatorship stink?)
Should we be celebrating when other people find it difficult to sit next to us, even at a funeral? I think there is a serious need for self-introspection on the part of the president. In all social circles when people refuse to sit next to you, either une gwembe (a serious infectious skin disease) or it is because of another reason that I cannot talk about in a family newspaper like this.
Let’s think about it seriously Mr President.
Friday, 17 December 2004 02:00
By Charles Mangongera
PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe and his bootlickers are over the moon because he shook Prince Charles’ hand at Pope John Paul II’s funeral.
According to the president, they also talked about beautiful girls in Ghana and in the conversation Mugabe is said to have told the prince that his first wife Sally was Ghanaian.
I am not sure if the conversation went further to touch on beautiful girls from Zimbabwe and Britain because the prince and the president married a Briton and a Zimbabwean respectively, in their second marriages.
Upon returning to Zimbabwe, the president also had a tale to tell about British Prime Minister Tony Blair fleeing from his official seat on realising that his delegation was to sit next to Mugabe at the funeral. The story has it that Blair, his wife Cherie, the leader of the Conservative party Michael Howard and the leader of the Liberal Democrats Charles Kennedy were to sit next to our dear leader and that this scared the hell out of them.
I enjoyed reading about the composition of the British delegation — Blair the prime minister, Howard the challenger and Kennedy, another challenger, all putting aside their political differences for a worthy cause. Zvinodadisa zvimbwasungata izvi (they are wonderful these imperialists)!
Imagine Mugabe joining hands with Morgan Tsvangirai and Wilson Khumbula, or even Jonathan Moyo for that matter, or any other aspirant to the presidential throne, for a worthy cause! Like attending the funeral of Archbishop Pius Ncube, or Archbishop Desmond Tutu, for instance. Not that I am praying for the Lord to take them now. I mean Pius Ncube and Desmond Tutu! But we are all mortals, are we not?
But what is the significance of the handshake between the prince and the president, one may ask? And the Blair fleeing incident?
Firstly, the government-controlled media went to town about it, with the official daily at the weekend giving a blow-by-blow account of what transpired. I think there is a real lack of seriousness among these people. I mean Mugabe and his bootlickers like television propagandist Reuben Barwe. The country is in deep trouble and all they waste their time and energy talking about is how Blair and his crew “fled” from Mugabe and how the president and the prince talked about beautiful girls in Ghana.
Something is not right here. Instead of using the rare opportunity to talk about the problems bedevilling the country, the president says he was talking about beautiful girls! There is a biting shortage of everything from cooking oil to fuel, and even common sense! Yet we waste our energies on trivia.
If I were the president I would have used the rare moment with the prince to implore him to help in the thawing of relations with Britain and the rest of the world so that Zimbabwe gets readmitted to the international community. This isolationist attitude is not bearing fruit Mr President. Neither is the “Look East” policy. The East is busy looking somewhere else, the West included. We are shunning the West at our own peril.
But why did the British delegation flee from the president anyway? I did not hear Barwe mentioning this. Could it be because paita kasimero kehudictator? (there is a dictatorship stink?)
Should we be celebrating when other people find it difficult to sit next to us, even at a funeral? I think there is a serious need for self-introspection on the part of the president. In all social circles when people refuse to sit next to you, either une gwembe (a serious infectious skin disease) or it is because of another reason that I cannot talk about in a family newspaper like this.
Let’s think about it seriously Mr President.
Saturday 10 December 2011
Whose election is it anyway?
Charles Mangongera
President Robert Mugabe and a cabal of security chiefs acting in cahoots with a hard line faction within ZANU (PF) want to force the country to go to an election in the first quarter of next year. In fact were it not for South African President Jacob Zuma and SADC, Mugabe and this cabal would have forced an election on us this year. They have tried everything that they can to ensure that the inclusive government collapses so that Mugabe can call a snap election. But they have not bothered to the nation how such an election is in the national interest and how it will benefit ordinary Zimbabweans.
Mugabe has told his supporters that he wants an early election because the inclusive government is not working. Frankly that is a bunch of baloney. It is akin to a spouse lying, cheating and not respecting a marriage and then rushing to the courts to file for divorce on the grounds that the marriage is not working! The inclusive is not working because Mugabe and his party do not want it to work. If they really wanted it to work why would they take every opportunity to work against it?
I posit that Mugabe and his few henchmen want an election for selfish personal considerations. Mugabe reasons that because of his advanced age, time is running out. He wants an early election that he hopes to win and guarantee himself that he will die in office. Otherwise what else would motivate an 88-year-old man to contest an election? What does he hope to deliver to Zimbabweans now that he has not been able to deliver in the 31 years that he has been in power? The argument that if he goes then his party will collapse is nonsensically selfish. Zimbabwean citizens do not all belong to ZANU (PF) and they care less what happens in that political party because it is a private matter.
I have noticed that within ZANU (PF) those that are making the loudest noise about an election are those that do not occupy positions in the inclusive government. The likes of Jonathan Moyo and Christopher Mutsvangwa are angling for ministerial positions and they hope to ingratiate themselves to Mugabe by shamelessly groveling about elections. Moyo thinks that his swashbuckling and irresponsible confrontational attitude towards Zuma and his facilitation team has endeared him to Mugabe and that he will get either the Foreign Affairs ministerial portfolio or he will be returned to the Information Ministry.
What Moyo does not seem to realize is that his no-prisoners-taken approach to politics has embarrassed well-meaning members of ZANU (PF) who feel that he is creating more enemies for the party in the region and on the continent at a time when it should be making more friends. At any rate the Wikileaks cables have exposed him as a ‘flip-flopper’ and ‘useful messenger’ of US interests in Zimbabwe. This has caused some ructions among those in the party who have always questioned Moyo’s loyalty since the beginning of his flirtation with ZANU (PF).
The securocrats have never accepted the GNU since its consummation. They have never wanted Morgan Tsvangirai anywhere near the levers of state power and that explains why they turned the 2008 presidential election run-off into a bloodbath. They have not made a secret of their desire to see ZANU (PF) governing alone. Personal economic interests drive their attitudes. They see the MDC presence in the government as a threat to their interests as it has reduced opportunities for rent-seeking and lucrative government tenders. They also fear that the more Mugabe interacts with Tsvangirai the less he will dislike him. The possibility of Tsvangirai and Mugabe striking a political deal that excludes them is too dreadful to contemplate for the securocrats.
Mugabe and his small cabal seem to have forgotten why the inclusive government was formed in the first place. This government was born out of a disputed electoral outcome. And that disputed outcome was a result of the political conditions prevailing at the time. Those conditions are still very much in place. I challenge anyone to tell me what has changed since 2008. Only a fool continues to do the same thing and expecting different results. ZANU (PF) elements now want to pretend that the GNU is a burden to them when in actual fact it gave them a lifeline.
If Tsvangirai had refused to sign that pact agreeing to form a power sharing government Mugabe and ZANU (PF) would be history by now. Even after claiming to have won the presidential election run-off Mugabe could not form a government because he knew that he had not have legitimacy internally and externally. How do they hope to gain legitimacy this time round? Or they think they can buy it? If they think that the money being looted from the Chiadzwa diamond fields can buy them legitimacy then they should think again. They need look no further than Libya to see that money cannot buy legitimacy. By attempting to ditch the GNU Mugabe and his small cabal are behaving like the proverbial drowning fool who gets a life vest from a well- wisher only to throw it away before making it to the shore claiming that he now can swim! That fool will sink to his death unless the well-wisher is kind enough to throw him another vest.
Frankly no one in this country except Mugabe and his small cabal wants an election. The business community has since cautioned against an early election fearing that the modicum of economic stability they are enjoying will be wiped out. Barring Kasukuwere’s legalized asset stripping through the ill-conceived indigenization policy, which has become an avenue for crony capitalism, the inclusive government has created a relatively friendly environment for business to function, albeit not to full capacity. The bullish Finance Minister, Tendai Biti has managed to cushion companies against outright robbery by central bank governor Gideon Gono. Prior to the formation of the inclusive government Gono nefariously issued dubious foreign currency retention regulations that were essentially a scam for the hemorrhaging of the central bank for the benefit of ZANU (PF) cronies.
Civil society has categorically stated its opposition to an early election. The conditions on the ground are not conducive for free and fair political competition. The infrastructure of violence is still very much intact. Rights activists and journalists continue to be targets of arbitrary arrests. As I am writing three media rights activists from the Media Monitoring Project (MMPZ) are in police custody for violating the Public Order and Security Act (POSA), that shameful relic of colonial repression. ZANU (PF) thugs are terrorizing innocent citizens in Mbare and other communities with impunity. The police continue to arrest the victims of violence instead of the perpetrators. The public media continues to exhibit partisan coverage of news as it only carries the ZANU (PF) voice. The MDC is only mentioned when it is being lampooned and ridiculed. Attempts to open up the electronic media space have been hijacked as ZANU (PF) linked companies have snapped up the two licenses on offer.
ZANU (PF) members and supporters themselves do not want an election. Mugabe’s MPs have not made a secret of their opposition to his call for elections next year. Most of them would rather see the end of their legislative terms in 2013 than be subjected to an electoral challenge. Moreover, a majority of them are opposed to Mugabe’s candidature. If Mugabe follows foolish counsel by the small cabal that wants elections for selfish personal interests then he risks his MPs revolting against him. They will do another ‘Operation bhora mudondo’ as they did in 2008 when they urged their supporters to vote for a ZANU (PF) candidate in the parliamentary election but have the liberty to make up their own minds on their choice of President.
Ordinary ZANU (PF) supporters do not want an election. They too have borne the brunt of poverty and deprivation under a ZANU (PF) government and they see the inclusive government as having given them some modicum of relief, which they would rather not lose. As the party is gathering in Bulawayo for its annual conference, I challenge Mugabe to put the issue of elections to a popular vote by the conference delegates. I am confident that a majority of them will say no to an election next year. Only the hoodlums and political pimps who benefit opaque beer and cheap Chinese-made t-shirts would say they want an election.
President Robert Mugabe and a cabal of security chiefs acting in cahoots with a hard line faction within ZANU (PF) want to force the country to go to an election in the first quarter of next year. In fact were it not for South African President Jacob Zuma and SADC, Mugabe and this cabal would have forced an election on us this year. They have tried everything that they can to ensure that the inclusive government collapses so that Mugabe can call a snap election. But they have not bothered to the nation how such an election is in the national interest and how it will benefit ordinary Zimbabweans.
Mugabe has told his supporters that he wants an early election because the inclusive government is not working. Frankly that is a bunch of baloney. It is akin to a spouse lying, cheating and not respecting a marriage and then rushing to the courts to file for divorce on the grounds that the marriage is not working! The inclusive is not working because Mugabe and his party do not want it to work. If they really wanted it to work why would they take every opportunity to work against it?
I posit that Mugabe and his few henchmen want an election for selfish personal considerations. Mugabe reasons that because of his advanced age, time is running out. He wants an early election that he hopes to win and guarantee himself that he will die in office. Otherwise what else would motivate an 88-year-old man to contest an election? What does he hope to deliver to Zimbabweans now that he has not been able to deliver in the 31 years that he has been in power? The argument that if he goes then his party will collapse is nonsensically selfish. Zimbabwean citizens do not all belong to ZANU (PF) and they care less what happens in that political party because it is a private matter.
I have noticed that within ZANU (PF) those that are making the loudest noise about an election are those that do not occupy positions in the inclusive government. The likes of Jonathan Moyo and Christopher Mutsvangwa are angling for ministerial positions and they hope to ingratiate themselves to Mugabe by shamelessly groveling about elections. Moyo thinks that his swashbuckling and irresponsible confrontational attitude towards Zuma and his facilitation team has endeared him to Mugabe and that he will get either the Foreign Affairs ministerial portfolio or he will be returned to the Information Ministry.
What Moyo does not seem to realize is that his no-prisoners-taken approach to politics has embarrassed well-meaning members of ZANU (PF) who feel that he is creating more enemies for the party in the region and on the continent at a time when it should be making more friends. At any rate the Wikileaks cables have exposed him as a ‘flip-flopper’ and ‘useful messenger’ of US interests in Zimbabwe. This has caused some ructions among those in the party who have always questioned Moyo’s loyalty since the beginning of his flirtation with ZANU (PF).
The securocrats have never accepted the GNU since its consummation. They have never wanted Morgan Tsvangirai anywhere near the levers of state power and that explains why they turned the 2008 presidential election run-off into a bloodbath. They have not made a secret of their desire to see ZANU (PF) governing alone. Personal economic interests drive their attitudes. They see the MDC presence in the government as a threat to their interests as it has reduced opportunities for rent-seeking and lucrative government tenders. They also fear that the more Mugabe interacts with Tsvangirai the less he will dislike him. The possibility of Tsvangirai and Mugabe striking a political deal that excludes them is too dreadful to contemplate for the securocrats.
Mugabe and his small cabal seem to have forgotten why the inclusive government was formed in the first place. This government was born out of a disputed electoral outcome. And that disputed outcome was a result of the political conditions prevailing at the time. Those conditions are still very much in place. I challenge anyone to tell me what has changed since 2008. Only a fool continues to do the same thing and expecting different results. ZANU (PF) elements now want to pretend that the GNU is a burden to them when in actual fact it gave them a lifeline.
If Tsvangirai had refused to sign that pact agreeing to form a power sharing government Mugabe and ZANU (PF) would be history by now. Even after claiming to have won the presidential election run-off Mugabe could not form a government because he knew that he had not have legitimacy internally and externally. How do they hope to gain legitimacy this time round? Or they think they can buy it? If they think that the money being looted from the Chiadzwa diamond fields can buy them legitimacy then they should think again. They need look no further than Libya to see that money cannot buy legitimacy. By attempting to ditch the GNU Mugabe and his small cabal are behaving like the proverbial drowning fool who gets a life vest from a well- wisher only to throw it away before making it to the shore claiming that he now can swim! That fool will sink to his death unless the well-wisher is kind enough to throw him another vest.
Frankly no one in this country except Mugabe and his small cabal wants an election. The business community has since cautioned against an early election fearing that the modicum of economic stability they are enjoying will be wiped out. Barring Kasukuwere’s legalized asset stripping through the ill-conceived indigenization policy, which has become an avenue for crony capitalism, the inclusive government has created a relatively friendly environment for business to function, albeit not to full capacity. The bullish Finance Minister, Tendai Biti has managed to cushion companies against outright robbery by central bank governor Gideon Gono. Prior to the formation of the inclusive government Gono nefariously issued dubious foreign currency retention regulations that were essentially a scam for the hemorrhaging of the central bank for the benefit of ZANU (PF) cronies.
Civil society has categorically stated its opposition to an early election. The conditions on the ground are not conducive for free and fair political competition. The infrastructure of violence is still very much intact. Rights activists and journalists continue to be targets of arbitrary arrests. As I am writing three media rights activists from the Media Monitoring Project (MMPZ) are in police custody for violating the Public Order and Security Act (POSA), that shameful relic of colonial repression. ZANU (PF) thugs are terrorizing innocent citizens in Mbare and other communities with impunity. The police continue to arrest the victims of violence instead of the perpetrators. The public media continues to exhibit partisan coverage of news as it only carries the ZANU (PF) voice. The MDC is only mentioned when it is being lampooned and ridiculed. Attempts to open up the electronic media space have been hijacked as ZANU (PF) linked companies have snapped up the two licenses on offer.
ZANU (PF) members and supporters themselves do not want an election. Mugabe’s MPs have not made a secret of their opposition to his call for elections next year. Most of them would rather see the end of their legislative terms in 2013 than be subjected to an electoral challenge. Moreover, a majority of them are opposed to Mugabe’s candidature. If Mugabe follows foolish counsel by the small cabal that wants elections for selfish personal interests then he risks his MPs revolting against him. They will do another ‘Operation bhora mudondo’ as they did in 2008 when they urged their supporters to vote for a ZANU (PF) candidate in the parliamentary election but have the liberty to make up their own minds on their choice of President.
Ordinary ZANU (PF) supporters do not want an election. They too have borne the brunt of poverty and deprivation under a ZANU (PF) government and they see the inclusive government as having given them some modicum of relief, which they would rather not lose. As the party is gathering in Bulawayo for its annual conference, I challenge Mugabe to put the issue of elections to a popular vote by the conference delegates. I am confident that a majority of them will say no to an election next year. Only the hoodlums and political pimps who benefit opaque beer and cheap Chinese-made t-shirts would say they want an election.
Sunday 4 December 2011
Zimbabwe's electronic media: Old wine in new bottles
Charles Mangongera
Tafataona Mahoso is generally a boring character. When he is not rehashing 1960s Rhodesian history in his long and nauseating weekly newspaper columns published by Zimpapers, he joins other grey-haired cretins in a ZTV political talk show whose producers would be confined to a mental institution were this a normal country. On that political talk show Mahoso and company spew so much hate that they make Colonel Gadhafi’ rants about ‘rats and cockroaches’ sound like motivational speeches by a business executive.
These days in between writing those gory newspaper columns and insulting the collective intelligence of Zimbabweans on national TV, Mahoso also has another cushy job. As chair of the Broadcasting Authority of Zimbabwe (BAZ) he gets to decide who gets a radio license to broadcast in a media environment that is dominated by Zimpapers and ZBC, owners of the newspapers he writes for and the TV station that hosts his talk show respectively.
That Mahoso is a ZANU (PF) card-carrying member is indisputable. One only has to brave through one of his opinion pieces to detect this. How the MDC negotiators agreed to him chairing the BAZ is mind-boggling. In the period before the GNU Mahoso had another enviable job. As Chairman of the now defunct Media and Information Commission (MIC), where he was appointed by Jonathan Moyo, he got paid to decide which newspaper and journalist got a license to practice the trade. On his watch more than half a dozen daily and weekly newspapers were shut down. Hundreds of journalists were thrown on to the streets jobless. My friends in the media fraternity quickly christened him the ‘media hangman’.
So when I read that the same Mahoso would announce the names of companies that had been granted new licenses to run radio stations I was gripped with trepidation. I rang a media consultant friend to give me the low down on the applicants that had made it onto Mahoso’s shortlist. There were four of them. I started doing my own scoring, mumbling some thoughts to myself.
“So there is AB Communications owned by journalist and businessman Supa Mandiwanzira. His biggest asset is that he is a ZANU (PF) sympathizer. Or is he a card-carrying member? OK, so he hosts a TV programme that is inaptly titled ‘Talking Business with Supa’. What business? That show is a platform for showcasing ZANU (PF) cronies and politicos on national television. This is the same Supa who was recently kicked out of the Affirmative Action Group (AAG), a dubious black economic empowerment outfit founded by that pompous political reject Philip Chiyangwa. Could it be that he fell out of favour with the authorities? Well, he fell out of favour with Chiyangwa so that is inconsequential. But hang on a second. For a long time Supa was a ZTV main news anchor, where day in and day out he ferociously parroted ZANU (PF) propaganda. This might actually work in his favour Well, we will see’.
Next up; Zimpapers. ‘OK I get it. This is the company that publishes The Herald and a string of other ZANU (PF) mouthpieces. Smart move by ZANU (PF)! Now they want another one of their own. But I thought they had all the ZBC radio stations in their bag? Yes they do but the idea of getting the license is not because they do not have enough electronic media space. It is actually to ensure that nobody else gets it. Talk of primitive accumulation. Besides there is an awful lot of money to be made. Old Mutual, that avaricious property behemoth is a significant shareholder at Zimpapers. By the way Old Mutual has just given Kasukuwere $11 million for youth projects under that dubious empowerment scheme. Another election war chest for ZANU (PF)! And is it not listed on the London Stock Exchange? But we are told there is no love lost between London and Harare. Politics dzakaoma. Back to the licensing, I think Zimpapers is shoe-in, otherwise how would Mahoso justify denying them a license to Shamu?’
The other applicant was Vox Media currently broadcasting from outside the country as Radio Voice of the People. ‘This actually seems like a good application. Maybe I am being biased because I have had the privilege of being a guest on some of their radio programmes. Not really. I think it would be a happy day for media freedom if they get a license. John Masuku is a decent guy. And he has a good team of journalists. Obviously Mahoso will look at this as one of the pirate radio stations. But he needs to license at least one of the truly independent ones to give this thing some modicum of fairness, right? Are we not in an inclusive government? Will he take that into account? He is just a hired gun, is he not? What if he is taking instructions from Shamu? This is a tricky one’.
Finally there was Hot Media. ‘Who are these guys? Is this the Oliver Mutukudzi outfit?’ I quickly rang my media consultant friend who told me that indeed this was the Oliver Mutukudzi outfit, adding that the name of the radio station is actually Kiss FM. ‘Kiss FM? What kind of grown man names a radio station Kiss FM?’ Anyway I quickly checked who else was part of Hot Media. I was told Musi Khumalo. ‘Did she not work for ZBC for a very long time? That might actually work in their favour. But will Mahoso trust them? Didn’t Tuku pen that controversial Bvuma/Tolerance song, imploring an old man to take a rest? And if they get it, can they be trusted to give a voice to the poor and downtrodden? And to dissenting voices? I like Mudhara Tuku as a singer but I just cannot fathom him as a director of a radio station. Well, this may just work. You never know’.
Later on that day I went to my local watering hall and bet my media consultant friend six beers that Mahoso would give one license to ZANU (PF), meaning either Zimpapers or Supa Mandiwanzira and at least one to the other two. Being the pessimist that he is, he insisted that all of them would go to ZANU PF, cautioning me ‘ZANU umombonyatsoiziva zvakanaka iwe?
Two days later Mahoso dropped a bombshell. Both available licenses were given to ZANU (PF). One went to Mandiwanzira’s AB Communications. The other one went to Zimpapers. Media rights organisations are screaming ‘we was robbed’! So what is Mahoso’s alibi? ‘Well, we had a scoring system and the two companies scored the highest points’. Really? What was the grading system? Is it proximity to ZANU (PF)? That explanation is as unconvincing as Luke Tamborinyoka’s nuptial denials Mr. Mahoso. You owe me my six beers! And then we have Supa Mandiwanzira trying to play smart. ‘Well, I am not ZANU (PF)’. Yeah right! Tell that to my eight-year-old Tino and see if she will believe you Mr. Mandiwanzira.
But honestly I think this is a fraud of scandalous proportions. Mahoso and his team must all resign in shame. The country needs to move beyond this barbaric monopolisation of the electronic media by ZANU (PF). But again do they not say the more things change the more they stay the same?
Saturday 3 December 2011
The ZANU (PF) Bulawayo Conference: A few points to ponder.
I must quickly make a disclaimer. I am not a member of ZANU (PF) and I doubt that I will ever be. I say so because I have never found its value system appealing to me. I am forever grateful for its contribution to liberating our country from colonial bondage but that is as far as it goes. Post-independence, I think that the party of revolution failed to transform itself into a modern day political party with a sustainable vision for a better Zimbabwe. That said I must say I feel compelled to raise the following few points as an observant Zimbabwean citizen.
I raise these points because as a patriotic citizen that espouses democratic values I think that ZANU (PF) is an important institution. Not in its present state though. I am a firm believer in multi-party democracy and I argue that if Zimbabwe is to become a stable democracy; ZANU (PF) must re-invent itself to become a credible and viable opposition party that can challenge and reclaim political space from the MDC in the future. I fear that giving the MDC a blank check of uncontested political supremacy will turn that party into another ZANU (PF). It is a fact of life that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
As the party holds its annual conference in Bulawayo I seriously doubt that it will come up with anything positive for Zimbabwe. The party has once again squandered an opportunity for serious self-introspection especially on the issue of its future leadership. I say so because as I write the party provincial congresses are already falling over each other to endorse Mugabe as their candidate for the next presidential election. Yet there is unanimous agreement among the party stalwarts that Mugabe has become a liability that will not deliver an electoral victory, if what we read in the Wikileaks cables is true.
What is sad is that the conference comes at a time when the former ruling party is confronted by a plethora of challenges that seem insurmountable to it. The obvious one is that it has lost its decades-long stranglehold on power and that it risks losing the next elections if they are held under conditions of free and fair competition. Decades of corruption, economic mismanagement, violent suppression of dissent and downright arrogance have left Zimbabweans disenchanted by ZANU (PF)’s rule. The loss of the 2008 elections to the MDC attests to this. The truth of the matter is that in its present state ZANU (PF) is incapable of legitimately mounting a serious electoral campaign that will sway popular support from Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC. As the party deliberates on its future, it must therefore face certain realities. They may seem unpalatable but they are crucial to saving the party from permanently disappearing from the Zimbabwean political landscape.
The first poignant fact that ZANU (PF) must accept is that in its present state it is incapable of winning a legitimate election. The party must therefore start seriously thinking about handing over power to a legitimate government that will most likely be headed by Morgan Tsvangirai, with a few members of the executive drawn from moderate elements from its own ranks. Mugabe must avoid digging for himself what Masipula Sithole calls a ‘dishonourable grave’ by reigning in the civilian and security cabal that is opposed to the transfer of power in Zimbabwe. He must also ensure that the election is free from violence and intimidation. That way he can retire with some modicum of dignity and honour. ZANU (PF) must then accept its place as the official opposition and use that opportunity to re-invent itself if it is to remain relevant.
Let us face it; at nearly 88 Mugabe is too old and frail to lead the party. If we are to believe revelations from the Wikileaks cables he is also very sick. His repeated sojourns to the Far East in recent months have heightened suspicion that his health is failing him. The logical thing for him to do is to retire after losing the next election. ZANU (PF) must then follow internal party democratic processes of selecting a younger successor to Mugabe. It has to find a moderate who will lead the party’s re-invention as it seeks to regain its foothold on Zimbabwean politics.
In choosing such a leader the party must find a balance between maintaining its historical legacy as a liberation movement and transforming itself into a modern day, marketable political brand that finds resonance with young generations that may be too busy updating their Facebook profiles to care about the age at which Mbuya Nehanda was hanged by the colonial regime. The party must also shun the demagogic characters that are desperately pushing a vague ‘Generation 40’ campaign. These characters have exhibited opportunistic and parasitic tendencies that will be inimical to the party’s re-invention. The process of selecting Mugabe’s successor must strictly be guided by national interest rather than factional considerations.
The next step is for the party to re-brand itself as a non-violent revolutionary party with tenets of a democratic tradition. It must shed off the ‘bad guy’ image by disbanding the ‘rag tag’ outfits in its ranks. It must package its ideology in such a way that it exudes its revolutionary appeal while at the same time projecting a vision for a modern day Zimbabwe. It must revamp its empowerment brand of politics from a predatory elite patronage system to a genuine empowerment drive that is enterprise driven. Rule of law and respect for property rights must underpin its empowerment policies. It must demonstrate unflinching adherence to a culture of human rights.
My advice to ZANU (PF) is motivated by a recognition that there is a realistic chance that after serving for a term or two the MDC might lose its mass appeal. My fear is that it has overpromised to the point where it has generated unrealistic expectations by the electorate. After five years in power people will start to ask the MDC some difficult questions about unfulfilled promises. Moreover, there will not be an anti-Mugabe vote to bank on. Whoever takes over from Mugabe stands a good chance of mounting a serious challenge to Tsvangirai when he seeks a second term as President. After Tsvangirai has done his two terms, the opposition leader from ZANU (PF) even stands a better chance of defeating whoever will have succeeded Tsvangirai as leader of the MDC.
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