African Union (AU): Time to adapt or die

As African heads of state gather in Addis Ababa for the African Union (AU) 18th Ordinary Session, the question on the minds of many on the African continent is whether the continental union has the stamina and political will to tackle problems afflicting the continent. Of interest will be the AU’s post-mortem of the people’s revolution in the Arab North and how this will inform its strategies in dealing with Africa’s democratization challenge.

Many Zimbabweans are not surprised that the Zimbabwean crisis is not on the agenda. This is because certain historical realities shape political processes in the AU. Two weeks ago the outgoing Chair of the African Union, Teodoro Obiang Nguema, President of Equatorial Guinea made a surprise visit to Harare and met with President Mugabe for close to six hours at State House. Mugabe had been scheduled to be on holiday in the Far East until the end of the month but must have considered Nguema’s visit more important and had to cut it short.  This is because as outgoing Chair of the African Union, the Equatorial Guinea President would play an important role in shaping the direction of discussions at the Summit.

Without a doubt, Mugabe leaned heavily on Nguema to have Zimbabwe excluded from the agenda, a request that the latter mush have found hard to decline.   He owes Mugabe big time. Seven years ago a group of armed bandits led by British mercenary Simon Mann were on their way to overthrow his government. He is forever grateful to Mugabe for foiling that coup attempt. Mugabe’s security agents intercepted Mann and his gang at the Harare International Airport, seized their large cache of weapons and detained them at Chikurubi Maximum Prison before handing them over to Equatorial Guinea.  They were to spend several months in a Malibu prison but were eventually released after secretive high-level diplomatic and political deals were cut. Mann has become a cult hero in the political underworld and his story has become an intriguing plot that will certainly inspire a blockbuster in Hollywood. 

As the AU meets to deliberate on the challenges confronting the continent it is imperative to make a critical assessment of the continental body’s performance over the last few years. Obviously the major issue that immediately springs to mind is the revolution that swept across the Arab North resulting in the collapse of dictatorships in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. One of the key lessons learnt from the Arab North uprisings is that the AU has neither the political will nor the capacity to solve problems on the continent. Its mantra of African solutions to African problems was exposed as a farce as the continental body dithered at every turn. What the revolutions in the Arab North also exposed is the fact that given a choice between responding to legitimate citizen demands for democratic reform and solidarity with dictators, the current crop of leadership will choose political expediency and will do everything in its power to help each other retain power.

Take the case of Libya for example. When the people of Libya stood up against a power-hungry lunatic with a penchant for tasteless ostentation, the continental body did not respond. Gadhafi responded by bombing his own people, calling them ‘rats’ that deserved to be flushed out.  Instead of going into Libya with a workable plan of action the AU sent a delegation to stroke Gadhafi’s ego. The AU should have sided with the people of Libya by leaning heavily on Colonel Gadhafi to leave office, stop butchering innocent citizens and agree on a road map to democratic transition. But instead the continental body prevaricated and dithered, paving way for NATO to go in and take out Gadhafi. I was saddened by that turn of events because I believe foreign forces like NATO have no business determining what happens to an African country. But the African Union created a vacuum for NATO to move in by failing to devise a credible plan to deal with the crisis. All they did was find ways of helping Gadhafi maintain his hegemony instead of addressing the genuine needs of the Libyan people.

The likes of Thabo Mbeki want to lecture us on how NATO abused UN Resolution 1973 to oust Gadhafi. But what they do not want to admit is that Gadhafi was a power hungry kleptocract who had no respect for the sanctity of human life. Mugabe would have his supporters believe Gadhafi was a quack revolutionary, accusing him of donating camels to Zimbabwe instead of offering real money. What he does not bother telling them is that Gadhafi maintained a web of cronyism by doling out hundreds of thousands of dollars to several African leaders.

A few days ago I had the privilege of being a panelist on a radio program to discuss African challenges in the context of the Addis Summit. On the panel was another analyst who openly declared himself a ZANU (PF) member. Responding to a question on the exclusion of Zimbabwe on the agenda of the Summit, my ZANU (PF)-aligned co-panelist went into a tirade about how ZANU (PF) had liberated the country and how the MDC, according to him a creation of the West, wants to reverse the gains of the liberation struggle by giving land to back to the whites. Unfortunately there was no one from the MDC to counter this drivel. All I could do was remind him that all the dictators that I had read about in history, including the recent ones in the Arab North, had alleged a Western or foreign plot against them but had died at the hands of their own people.

As I reflected on the African challenge of failed transitions to democracy and sustainable development, I kept going back to the words of the ZANU (PF)-aligned analyst. I thought his mindset was a perfect resemblance of the bigger African problem. The leadership is caught up in a time warp and it has an end of history mentality. Its political attitudes are obviously shaped by the colonial history of the continent and their thinking is that the fight against colonialism was the epitome of the African struggle for independence and that the attainment of independence marked the end of history. Any other struggles are dismissed as neo-colonial machinations to reverse the gains of independence. We have seen this script being played out in Zimbabwe and several other African states.

What the African leadership needs to appreciate is that while the fight for political independence was an important epoch in the history of Africa, and it is one that will be told forever, the younger generations are demanding the space to chart the future of their countries. They want jobs. They want business opportunities. They want to be heard. They want a say in the way their natural resources are exploited. They abhor their leaders’ opulence in the midst of poverty. They are connected and they have access to information on a daily basis, thanks to advances in technology.  African leaders need to respond to all of these or they will end up in a storm drain like Gadhafi. The appropriate theme for the Summit should have been ‘Adapt or die’.

Time for Zimbabweans to forge a united front

Charles Mangongera

Last week witnessed the disruption of the constitutional drafting process by ZANU (PF) elements masquerading as war veterans in Manicaland. Barbaric as it is, this is part of ZANU (PF)’s election grand plan, which is a build up on the party’s Bulawayo conference resolutions. ZANU (PF)’s immediate plan is to rubbish the COPAC process as a precursor to pulling out of it and Mugabe calling for a snap election. Their reasoning is that they can justifiably call for an election under the Lancaster house Constitution once the COPAC process has collapsed.  

I am not convinced that ZANU (PF) has a cogent and carefully thought-out political strategy in place beyond the elections. The party seems to be in fire fighting mode and is behaving like a clueless opposition political party. There seems to be an incessant disposition towards chaos as a means of survival. Decisions and actions within ZANU (PF) have not been based on rational thinking but have been driven by fear of the unknown. Frankly ZANU (PF)’s handling of the constitutional review process has been clumsy and it makes one wonder whether party strategists like Jonathan Moyo are really up to the task. One minute they announce that they are pulling out of the process, the next minute Mangwana is issuing contradicting statements.  Is this part of  a strategy or it betrays lack of cohesion in the party?

I have argued in this column before that Mugabe’s call for elections is ill advised. No one wants an election except for the small clique of hardline civilian elements and securocrats that is radically pushing the election agenda for selfish considerations.  This is an unpopular election that is not in the national interest. ZANU (PF) elements would have us believe that elections are the only alternative to the GNU. I argue that they are not.  There are many other courses of action that Zimbabweans can pursue in search of a democratic breakthrough.

A good example is the idea of a Transitional Authority or Transitional Council. Simba Makoni argued vociferously at the time of the GPA negotiations that having feuding political parties in a power sharing arrangement would not work. And it seems he has been vindicated. His proposal of a Transitional Authority fell on deaf ears but I am persuaded that it is time we opened an the debate on the efficacy of such a transitional mechanism.  I still think that the GNU has a chance of ushering in a democratic dispensation if hardline elements in ZANU (PF) are neutralized. But if it is to collapse then the alternative is not an election but probably a Transitional Authority or Transitional Council whose mandate is to run the affairs of the state until a legitimate government is elected.

As a transitional tool the GNU has failed. Granted it has brought some modicum of political stability and economic recovery. But the reform agenda has stalled, thanks to ZANU (PF)’s recalcitrance. The hope for many including those in the SADC and AU was that the GNU would create conditions for a free and fair election through reform of state institutions and the drafting of a constitution that would reflect the wishes of the people of Zimbabwe. Unfortunately the reform agenda has lost traction as hardline elements in ZANU (PF) have resisted reform at every level of the governance structure. The major problem has been that the of party-state fusion, a phenomenon where ZANU (PF) party activists are in control of the levers of the state infrastructure. A good example is that of permanent secretaries who are in charge of the day-to-day running of government ministries. A majority of the have exhibited patent allegiance to ZANU (PF) and they have frustrated MDC ministers by sabotaging the implementation of government policy and reform of state institutions. George Charamba behaves like a ZANU (PF) political commissar.  Policy disharmony has been the order of the day and this has negatively affected the discharge of government business.

I argue that elections are not the solution to this morass. This is because the conditions on the ground are not conducive for a free and fair election and the outcome will be a disputed one. It is time that well meaning Zimbabweans got together in the national interest to forge a united front that will stop Mugabe and his henchmen from imposing an unpopular election on the country. Only a strong coalition with visionary leadership can get us out of this mess.

ZANU (PF) hardliners will obviously push Mugabe to go it alone in an election. Boycotting such an illegitimate process is not necessarily giving ZANU (PF) a blank cheque to take over the country. My sense is that there are well-meaning people in ZANU (PF) who do not agree with the groin-kicking politics that is being advocated for by the hardliners in the party and the security establishment. They will not openly disagree with this scorched earth approach but they will vigorously push for wise counsel to prevail over foolish counsel. When it matters most they will side with the people. Even if ZANU (PF) goes it alone in an election, the resultant government will be an illegitimate one and it will not be able to function. This will force ZANU (PF) to come back to the negotiating table.

Drivers of positive change in Zimbabwean society need to put aside their political differences and varied interests to agree on a national transitional charter that spells out a credible road map to free and fair elections. If there is need for an alternative to the GNU the charter will also draw up terms of reference for a Transitional Council or a Transitional Authority that is made up of eminent personalities from civil society, business, the clergy, traditional leaders and the intelligentsia.  Political parties can participate but should not be part of the Transitional Council or Transitional Authority.

Its main brief will be to complete the process of drafting a constitution, which should be a fairly simple exercise given that there is enough raw data to work with. The draft can easily be a hybrid of the Chidyausiku Commission findings, the NCA draft, the Kariba Draft, the Law Society of Zimbabwe Draft, the COPAC draft, and any other drafts that are out there. The Transitional Council or Transitional Authority will also be tasked with the task of urgently reforming state institutions and running a credible election that will produce a legitimate government. With sufficient commitment and hard work this can be done in under a year. Zimbabweans are itching to get down to the hard work of rebuilding this beautiful nation.

The Problem with General Nyikayaramba's promotion

Charles Mangongera

In July 2010 General Stanely McChrystal was relieved of his duties as the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. This followed the publication a no-holds barred interview that he had granted to Rolling Stone magazine writer Michael Hastings. In the wide-ranging interview published in an article entitled The Runaway General, McChrystal had stepped the line, criticizing the American civilian leadership and questioning Obama’s capabilities in executing the Afghan military mission. The publication of the interview caused so much embarrassment at the Pentagon and the White House that Obama was left with no choice but to fire the man he had appointed immediately after he had entered the Oval office.

Six months ago The Zimbabwe Independent newspaper published excerpts of an interview of then Brigadier General Douglas Nikayaramba by political writer Faith Zaba. In the interview the General spoke like a ZANU (PF) party commissar raising a raft of political points ranging from his assessment of the inclusive government, which he branded as a failure, defending the presence of military personnel in rural communities, expressed his condescending views on Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC and gave his own assessment of ZANU (PF)’s performance in the 2008 elections, which he said was poor because the party had imposed candidates on constituents. In the same interview he called for elections to be held immediately arguing that the inclusive government had negatively affected military operations. He made the bold declaration that ‘I am in ZANU (PF) and ZANU (PF) is in me’.

Nyikayaramba’s political statements caused a huge political stink. MDC legislator Settlement Chikwinya called for disciplinary action to be taken against the General. In a country where there is heated debate on the efficacy of security sector reform as a precondition for democratisation, many pointed to Nyikayaramba’s political statements as justification for realignment of the security sector. In an obvious reference to Nyikayaramba and his ilk, Morgan Tsvangirai told a party rally in Gweru that he was challenging those in the military bent on making political pronouncements to remove the army uniform and face him in the political battlefield. Nyikayaramba was unperturbed. He even responded by firing another salvo at Tsvangirai, calling him a ‘national security threat rather than a political one’.

Unlike General McChrystal, Nyikayaramba’s political mumblings have not cost him his job. In fact President Mugabe has handed him a cushy job promoting him to the rank of Major General. He will move from his Mutare base to become Chief of Staff Quartermaster at the Zimbabwe Defense Forces headquarters. He will obviously get a better car, a house in the leafy suburbs, another farm of his choice, and several other perks associated with being part of the military elite.

Many in a country where civil-military relations have gradually deteriorated over the years have received news of Nyikayaramba’s promotion with trepidation. They perceive it as part of Mugabe’s electoral grand plan. Without a doubt Nyikayaramba’s has been rewarded for his spirited support for Mugabe whose legitimacy has become increasingly questionable both within and outside ZANU (PF). Defense Minister Emerson Mnangangwa seemed to be at pains to justify Nyikayaramba’s promotion. He was quoted as having said there are many men and women with similar experience and qualifications to Nyikayaramba’s who had not been promoted because they had not worked as hard as he had. That sounded like a lame justification. There is nothing extraordinary that Nyikayaramba has done in the recent past. He has not distinguished himself in any battle or performed any act of extreme bravery in defense of country and flag. All he has done is issue reckless political statements in contravention of the Defense Act.

The public has lost confidence in the impartiality of some of the security chiefs. They have become deeply involved in politics and have repeatedly made partisan political pronouncements that have unnerved ZANU (PF)’s political opponents. In the build up to the 2002 Presidential Election, the first stern test of Mugabe’s tenacity by Morgan Tsvangirai, the Joint Operations Command (JOC), a Soviet style outfit comprising heads of the state security agents, shocked the nation by issuing a public statement declaring that they would not salute anyone without liberation war credentials, a clear reference to Tsvangirai who did not fight in the guerilla war. Several rehearsed and impromptu political statements in which senior members of the security establishment have denigrated Tsvangirai as a ‘house nigger’ and ‘puppet of the West’ have followed this.

Professional soldiers must have been bewildered by Nyikayaramba’s promotion. The message that Mnangagwa and Mugabe seem to be sending is that by dabbling in partisan politics soldiers will earn themselves more stripes. My fear is that we will have more and more of the men in uniform making bold political statements in support of Mugabe and ZANU (PF) in order to earn promotions. There is a litany of cases to support the view that those that sing the loudest in praise of Mugabe and ZANU (PF) will be promoted. Others have been rewarded for delivering electoral victory to Mugabe by hook and crook. ZANU (PF) opponents cried foul when Justice George Chiweshe was promoted to the post of Judge President after controversially heading a Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) whose integrity was tainted by its failure to release the 2008 general election results on time and its reluctance to condemn a violent presidential run-off election campaign by ZANU (PF). Many will remember Chiweshe bolting out of a local hotel having been accosted by a troupe of local and international journalists who were demanding results of the elections.

The 2008 presidential election run-off campaign was so militarized that some have called it a ‘coup by stealth’ and there is justifiable concern that Mugabe and a hardline clique within the party and the security establishment is mulling a similar campaign. Nyikayaramba’s promotion bolsters that suspicion. Mugabe and his henchmen have already sent a strong signal that they want to radically push for an election this year following the December 2011 Bulawayo ZANU (PF) conference. They are acutely aware that winning a free and fair election is near impossible. Thankfully they can count on the likes of General Nyikayaramba to deliver an election victory to Mugabe.

The year 2012: A prognosis

By Charles Mangongera

Not much will change in 20102. First a quick glance at the world stage.  The French and the Americans will have presidential elections. I doubt that many Zimbabweans will find the French election interesting. Dominique Straus Kahn’s fall from grace might have gripped the attention of a nation that feasts on sex scandals involving high-ranking political figures but beyond that not many Zimbabweans will tell the difference between Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande, the new leader of the Socialists.  It is the American election that will interest many Zimbabweans, not least because the ‘skinny kid with a funny name’ will be seeking a second term as leader of the world’s most powerful country.

 In November Americans will have the choice of either retaining Barack Obama for a second term or choosing a Republican candidate. It is a tough choice for them. Republican stalwarts will argue that Mr. Obama has failed to steer the country out of economic stagnation and that unemployment levels are unacceptably high. The Republicans also accuse Obama of attempting to turn America into a Socialist Republic by taxing the rich and running a welfarist state.

I am not an expert on American politics but frankly the Republicans have been behaving like ZANU (PF) politicians. They have been stifling reform at every turn (Americans call it filibustering) and yet they have had the audacity to accuse Obama of being a do-nothing Commander in Chief. Republican hopefuls like Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney have been blaming Obama for the country’s economic woes. What they have not bothered to tell Americans is that Obama inherited a leaking colander from George Bush. That is the highest order of disingenuousness on their part. To be fair to I think the Republicans need to be grateful to Obama for ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Those two wars put an indelible stain on America’s standing in the world and it will take forever to repair the moral damage that they caused. Even tin pot dictators now occasionally poke fun at America for being a warmongering superpower.

Admittedly, it is a tough year for Obama. He has become a mere mortal after all.  Gone is the razzmatazz of the ‘cool’ black candidate riding on the message of hope and change to a nation that was battered and bruised. Americans will now be judging him on the basis of what he has delivered and not what he will be promising to deliver. Yes he has brought the troops home and taken out Bin Ladin but American families are worried about jobs and the economy. Zimbabweans will be watching the opinion polls with interest as the political drama unfolds.

Closer home the African National Congress (ANC) will celebrate 100 years of existence with Julius Malema having been temporarily banished to the political wilderness. The elective Mangaung conference will be a watershed political moment for Zuma. As he seeks a second term as leader of the ANC, he will be fighting internal resistance from comrades who have been surreptitiously plotting against him.  Thabo Mbeki has confirmed that he will attend the centenary celebrations. I guess he wants to be closer to the action as his political nemesis faces the political fight of his life. It is a tough year for Zuma.

Back home, undoubtedly 2012 will be a lonely year for President Mugabe. Most of his friends and idols abroad are either dead or they are out of power. Colonel Gadhafi is dead. Kim Jong II is gone. Hugo Chavez is battling cancer. With Ahmadinejad increasingly at loggerheads with the Americans, there will be no one to offer a friendly shoulder to lean on. It is a tough year for Mugabe.

Economically nothing much will change. Although the economy is expected to perform marginally better than last year, economists predict that growth will continue to be constrained by the policy disharmony of the inclusive government. They point to the haphazard implementation of the indigenization policy as deterring foreign direct investment, a critical ingredient for job creation and economic growth. Although a few of the mining firms have been bullied into signing a raft of hasty empowerment deals, there is still a lot of uncertainty and would-be investors are holding on to their cash. Youth, Empowerment and Indigenization Minister Kasukuwere has added to the confusion by threatening to target the banking sector for not complying with the law. This against wise counsel from industry experts, including Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono, who have warned that disturbing the banking industry would obliterate the whole economy.

Investors have also been unsettled by ZANU (PF)’s persistent calls for elections this year. Resolutions from the party’s December 2011 conference point to a radical push towards elections.  Although this will be a hard sell for Mugabe given SADC’s resolve to avoiding a disputed electoral process and outcome in Zimbabwe, investors will be cautious in their dealings with Harare. Capital is a coward and no sane investor will want to put money where there is political uncertainty.

With limited fiscal space government will not be able to pay decent wages to its workers. Threats of strikes are already looming. Not much can be expected from the diamonds as long as the robber barons maintain their stranglehold on Chiadzwa. We will witness more and more blame shifting between Ministers Biti and Mpofu concerning revenues from the sale of diamonds as the disharmony in the inclusive government continues to grow louder.

We know for a fact that in 2012 fissures within ZANU (PF) will widen. Party political commissar Webster Shamu has indicated that the party will begin the process of choosing candidates for parliamentary elections. While the party old guard will be out to hold on to its coveted constituencies, there has emerged a cohort of young and ambitious politicians that is challenging for honors. It includes a new class of the rich that has benefitted from ZANU (PF) patronage and has now become the biggest benefactor of the party. Witness how Philip Chiyangwa’s desperate attempt to regain the Mashonaland West Provincial Chairmanship has left the party sharply divided. This cohort of young and ambitious politicians also includes some retired officers from the security establishment and war veterans who feel that now is their time. The primary elections will turn into a dogfight. The old guard feels that like Mugabe it should not be challenged by anyone. Their reasoning is that if elections are to be held this year then they should be allowed to contest their constituencies unchallenged because their terms are being cut short by a year. Moreover Mugabe has retained his position so why should they not?

The feuding factions that are keen to succeed Mugabe will also continue to cause further ructions in the party. As Mugabe’s age becomes more advanced and his health a subject of speculation and conjecture, factional hawks will continue circling around him like vultures. The security chiefs, fearful of a post-Mugabe political settlement that excludes them, will increasingly become more and more entangled in the succession conundrum. 

I have argued before that there will not be an election in 2012. In the absence of an election (that will permanently seal their political fate) the feuding within the smaller MDC faction will persist as Mutambara and Ncube seek to outdo each other.  It is a safe bet to say the courts will confirm Ncube as the legitimate leader of the party. But he will not be sworn in as Deputy Prime Minister of the country. Mugabe and Tsvangirai will conspire to keep him at bay. Mugabe prefers Mutambara as a principal. He views Ncube with suspicion. On the other hand Tsvangirai has an axe to grind with Ncube following their October 2005 fallout. There is a high likelihood that Mutambara will launch his own political party once the legal route to wrestling control from Ncube fails.

The GNU will survive despite spirited efforts by a hardline clique to force it to collapse. Cases of political violence, intimidation and harassment will be on the increase. The parties will continue to bicker, as ZANU (PF) elements will try everything within their power to resist reform and to frustrate the MDC out of the government. Witness the clumsy attempts to rubbish the constitutional review process by leaking sections of the draft to The Herald newspaper. Luckily SADC will keep its eyes on the ball and will not let Mugabe get away with it.  There will be countless sojourns to Harare by the Zuma facilitation team and Zimbabwe will be high o the agenda of SADC meetings and summits. In spite of Mangwana and Mwonzora’s constant fights, the draft constitution will be completed and the country will go to a referendum most likely in the second half of the year before elections are held, possibly in 2013.  It is a tough year ahead.