By Charles Mangongera
Not much will change in 20102. First a quick glance at the world stage. The French and the Americans will have presidential elections. I doubt that many Zimbabweans will find the French election interesting. Dominique Straus Kahn’s fall from grace might have gripped the attention of a nation that feasts on sex scandals involving high-ranking political figures but beyond that not many Zimbabweans will tell the difference between Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande, the new leader of the Socialists. It is the American election that will interest many Zimbabweans, not least because the ‘skinny kid with a funny name’ will be seeking a second term as leader of the world’s most powerful country.
In November Americans will have the choice of either retaining Barack Obama for a second term or choosing a Republican candidate. It is a tough choice for them. Republican stalwarts will argue that Mr. Obama has failed to steer the country out of economic stagnation and that unemployment levels are unacceptably high. The Republicans also accuse Obama of attempting to turn America into a Socialist Republic by taxing the rich and running a welfarist state.
I am not an expert on American politics but frankly the Republicans have been behaving like ZANU (PF) politicians. They have been stifling reform at every turn (Americans call it filibustering) and yet they have had the audacity to accuse Obama of being a do-nothing Commander in Chief. Republican hopefuls like Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney have been blaming Obama for the country’s economic woes. What they have not bothered to tell Americans is that Obama inherited a leaking colander from George Bush. That is the highest order of disingenuousness on their part. To be fair to I think the Republicans need to be grateful to Obama for ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Those two wars put an indelible stain on America’s standing in the world and it will take forever to repair the moral damage that they caused. Even tin pot dictators now occasionally poke fun at America for being a warmongering superpower.
Admittedly, it is a tough year for Obama. He has become a mere mortal after all. Gone is the razzmatazz of the ‘cool’ black candidate riding on the message of hope and change to a nation that was battered and bruised. Americans will now be judging him on the basis of what he has delivered and not what he will be promising to deliver. Yes he has brought the troops home and taken out Bin Ladin but American families are worried about jobs and the economy. Zimbabweans will be watching the opinion polls with interest as the political drama unfolds.
Closer home the African National Congress (ANC) will celebrate 100 years of existence with Julius Malema having been temporarily banished to the political wilderness. The elective Mangaung conference will be a watershed political moment for Zuma. As he seeks a second term as leader of the ANC, he will be fighting internal resistance from comrades who have been surreptitiously plotting against him. Thabo Mbeki has confirmed that he will attend the centenary celebrations. I guess he wants to be closer to the action as his political nemesis faces the political fight of his life. It is a tough year for Zuma.
Back home, undoubtedly 2012 will be a lonely year for President Mugabe. Most of his friends and idols abroad are either dead or they are out of power. Colonel Gadhafi is dead. Kim Jong II is gone. Hugo Chavez is battling cancer. With Ahmadinejad increasingly at loggerheads with the Americans, there will be no one to offer a friendly shoulder to lean on. It is a tough year for Mugabe.
Economically nothing much will change. Although the economy is expected to perform marginally better than last year, economists predict that growth will continue to be constrained by the policy disharmony of the inclusive government. They point to the haphazard implementation of the indigenization policy as deterring foreign direct investment, a critical ingredient for job creation and economic growth. Although a few of the mining firms have been bullied into signing a raft of hasty empowerment deals, there is still a lot of uncertainty and would-be investors are holding on to their cash. Youth, Empowerment and Indigenization Minister Kasukuwere has added to the confusion by threatening to target the banking sector for not complying with the law. This against wise counsel from industry experts, including Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono, who have warned that disturbing the banking industry would obliterate the whole economy.
Investors have also been unsettled by ZANU (PF)’s persistent calls for elections this year. Resolutions from the party’s December 2011 conference point to a radical push towards elections. Although this will be a hard sell for Mugabe given SADC’s resolve to avoiding a disputed electoral process and outcome in Zimbabwe, investors will be cautious in their dealings with Harare. Capital is a coward and no sane investor will want to put money where there is political uncertainty.
With limited fiscal space government will not be able to pay decent wages to its workers. Threats of strikes are already looming. Not much can be expected from the diamonds as long as the robber barons maintain their stranglehold on Chiadzwa. We will witness more and more blame shifting between Ministers Biti and Mpofu concerning revenues from the sale of diamonds as the disharmony in the inclusive government continues to grow louder.
We know for a fact that in 2012 fissures within ZANU (PF) will widen. Party political commissar Webster Shamu has indicated that the party will begin the process of choosing candidates for parliamentary elections. While the party old guard will be out to hold on to its coveted constituencies, there has emerged a cohort of young and ambitious politicians that is challenging for honors. It includes a new class of the rich that has benefitted from ZANU (PF) patronage and has now become the biggest benefactor of the party. Witness how Philip Chiyangwa’s desperate attempt to regain the Mashonaland West Provincial Chairmanship has left the party sharply divided. This cohort of young and ambitious politicians also includes some retired officers from the security establishment and war veterans who feel that now is their time. The primary elections will turn into a dogfight. The old guard feels that like Mugabe it should not be challenged by anyone. Their reasoning is that if elections are to be held this year then they should be allowed to contest their constituencies unchallenged because their terms are being cut short by a year. Moreover Mugabe has retained his position so why should they not?
The feuding factions that are keen to succeed Mugabe will also continue to cause further ructions in the party. As Mugabe’s age becomes more advanced and his health a subject of speculation and conjecture, factional hawks will continue circling around him like vultures. The security chiefs, fearful of a post-Mugabe political settlement that excludes them, will increasingly become more and more entangled in the succession conundrum.
I have argued before that there will not be an election in 2012. In the absence of an election (that will permanently seal their political fate) the feuding within the smaller MDC faction will persist as Mutambara and Ncube seek to outdo each other. It is a safe bet to say the courts will confirm Ncube as the legitimate leader of the party. But he will not be sworn in as Deputy Prime Minister of the country. Mugabe and Tsvangirai will conspire to keep him at bay. Mugabe prefers Mutambara as a principal. He views Ncube with suspicion. On the other hand Tsvangirai has an axe to grind with Ncube following their October 2005 fallout. There is a high likelihood that Mutambara will launch his own political party once the legal route to wrestling control from Ncube fails.
The GNU will survive despite spirited efforts by a hardline clique to force it to collapse. Cases of political violence, intimidation and harassment will be on the increase. The parties will continue to bicker, as ZANU (PF) elements will try everything within their power to resist reform and to frustrate the MDC out of the government. Witness the clumsy attempts to rubbish the constitutional review process by leaking sections of the draft to The Herald newspaper. Luckily SADC will keep its eyes on the ball and will not let Mugabe get away with it. There will be countless sojourns to Harare by the Zuma facilitation team and Zimbabwe will be high o the agenda of SADC meetings and summits. In spite of Mangwana and Mwonzora’s constant fights, the draft constitution will be completed and the country will go to a referendum most likely in the second half of the year before elections are held, possibly in 2013. It is a tough year ahead.
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